NBA DFS picks, lineups, advice. 5. NBA picks: Barnes, Gobert have value in awards races. Let me try and do this the quick route. Ultimately, teams that cover win the game outright since 2016-17, 67% of the time in the first 21 games and. those expectations have to align with the front office's expectations, b. Matt Moore ranks the best NBA playoff first-round series betting values. As a guiding post, here are the four factors we're looking at when trying to get the best value:. In an extensive trade intel report released this morning, Action Network’s Matt Moore said the New Orleans Pelicans are still pursuing a trade up in Thursday’s NBA Draft to acquire Scoot. For the Guardians, putting Moore on waivers is nothing more than a salary dump. The Oklahoma City Thunder boast a top-five defense this year, which has been the biggest reason for their terrific 37-20 start. Pictured: Myles Turner #33 of the Indiana Pacers. He did not attempt a field goal, not one, in the first 12 minutes Thursday. Pictured: Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors, LeBron James #6 of the Los Angeles Lakers. 1051 Posts. Wembanyama 2. He's particularly adept at ruining pick and rolls, creating a turnover 18. The first is what good teams do. With Cade Cunningham going No. Our weekly look at NBA Power Ratings and betting trends across the association, featuring the rising 76ers, the sneaky Magic, and road woes for Memphis. But at this moment, the market should at the very least consider this a close race between the three candidates. 5 and -110. Adam Pantozzi/Getty Images. Does this make the 76ers a true contender in. If Green goes 2, Mobley goes 3 to Cleveland, if Mobley goes second, the Cavaliers may trade out and Green would go third. And it seemed to work. A tough one every year. Read on for his expert betting analysis, picks and predictions below. teams over . Since ’68, they have the sixth-most wins of all NBA teams (playoffs and regular season). The Cavaliers, sources say, have informed LeVert he won’t be traded before the deadline. Matt Moore. Picks. Landing the No. Adam Pantozzi/Getty Images. NBA Are Minnesota Timberwolves &. Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat proved that over and over this week, and decisively so in Game 5 Wednesday night, eliminating the Bucks in five games in their first-round series. 3 points, 13 rebounds, 3. except, look at his numbers: 21. 500 and 5-7 vs. Teams with a win total over 50 tend to go under, and teams with a win total over 54. Pictured: Utah Jazz standouts Rudy Gobert, left, and Donovan Mitchell. Oct 27, 2023 UTC. Get the latest on Andrea Bargnani including news, stats, videos, and more on CBSSports. Action Network Senior NBA Writer Matt Moore analyzes the win totals for all 30 teams and gives his picks ahead of. The Pick: Celtics -1. 5 three-pointers per game over at least 50 games, Westbrook has the worst percentage in NBA history. Moore suggested the. Matt Moore. Damian Lillard, Bradley Beal, Zion Williamson, Chris Paul, Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and John Collins (again!) are the names that are already bouncing around league circles. CBSSports. Our weekly look at NBA Power Ratings and betting trends across the association, featuring the rising 76ers, the sneaky Magic, and road woes for Memphis. Credit: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images. CBS Sports Staff Spread Picks 84 - 94 - 0 (47%) Over/Under Picks 81 - 97 - 0 (46%) Nov 17 Today Nov 19 Game Info Current Odds Expert Picks New York 122 Charlotte 108 FINAL o223. Oct 31, 2016 at 11:28 am ET • 1 min read The NBA is back and the first week has been downright awesome. Notably, Towns is repped by superpower agency CAA, which league sources consistently joke effectively runs the Knicks. Read Matt Moore's complete breakdown Giannis Antetokounmpo's case to be the 2019 NBA MVP, including analysis on his statistical efficiency, his defensive prowess and his impact on the Bucks' success as a team. NFL Pickem Challenge. Need more convincing?You have likely heard about Russell Westbrook this season. See NBA season win total picks for all 30 teams from The Action Network's Matt Moore heading into the 2019-20 season. Matt Moore. Depth Charts. Let’s dive into the angles and takeaways for Lakers vs. US Betting. This story began in a nondescript arena in an overlooked NBA city in the middle of January during a forgettable season. Action Network Senior Writer Matt Moore gives his five betting picks and predictions for. Action Network senior NBA writer Matt Moore breaks down the matchup and shares his three favorite bets for Nuggets vs. Harris was 44th percentile defending pick-and-rolls this season,. The. 7 ATS. Role. Matt. By Matt Moore. Paul Millsap looked 100 years old and was a negative in plus-minus in every stint in the first round. Grizzlies sign Kyle Anderson, four years, $37. Fantasy Baseball. In the end, all it. Matt Moore. The NBA trade deadline is in two months. Share: 5 months ago Los Angeles Angels relief pitcher Matt Moore (oblique) was placed on the 15-day injured list with a right oblique strain on Sunday. Matt Moore. The. Favorites in this spot are 48-17 SU and 43-20-2 (68%!) ATS. Darvin Ham has had the answers. Entering Game 5, the Heat are 7-point underdogs, but given the uncertainty that comes from Butler's willingness -- or lack thereof -- to take 3s, this is a tough line to bet. The trends are fairly obvious here. Knicks at Celtics. 8 rebounds per game. 5. ". The result is a situation that has wreaked havoc. DraftKings. They used it to suspend. Here are my two angles for Tuesday's NBA slate based on matchups and trends. Credit: Wally Skalij/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images. This post will look at the middle-tier players. If they win this year,. 5. Senior NBA Writer. 6% of the time and cover 69% of the time. com reports that the league has decided not to suspend Pacers guards Paul George and Rasual Butler for Game 7 for leaving the bench during Thursday's Hawks-Pacers altercation in Game 6. The bruise is on Jermaine O'Neal's kneecap, so unless Rapture is coming, look for him to gut it out. It's a refreshing time for about a month until the games start, and the injuries start, and teams find they're not as good as they thought. Utah is scoring 1. By Matt Moore. The Player Whose Season Most “Defined” The Season (AKA The Narrative Award) G. Matt Moore June 17, 2022 8:10 PMMatt Moore breaks down where the value is on the Milwaukee Buck's team total for Game 4 against the Detroit Pistons. Picks can be posted up until one hour before game time so check back throughout the day. who is allowing just 0. The Denver Nuggets were trudging through what was ultimately a 46-win season that. Over the past five years, home teams in Game 7 are just 8-10 and 4-14 ATS ( [). Role. He'll have pick-and-pop opportunities too. Download App. NBA DFS picks, lineups, advice, Nov. Follow Matt Moore. I’ll wait. More postseason coverage: Playoff schedule, results | Latest news, notes Ken Berger of CBSSports. Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. With that in mind, let's dive into the picks to get a sense of who has the best value for bettors. Matt has been covering the NBA since 2008, working for AOL FanHouse, NBC Sports, and CBS Sports before joining The Action Network at its inception. Follow. com, editor emeritus of Hardwood Paroxysm, and a completely deranged lunatic. The Pistons aren't alone in their pursuit of Williams, which means another team could trade up to acquire him. Lakers marquee Christmas game was always going to be a big deal. Sports. NBA Odds, Picks & Promotions: Bet $20, Win $125 if Blazers Hit at Least One 3-Pointer vs. The win moves Golden State within a game and a half of Portland for the 5-spot and more importantly, keeps a two-game gap between the Warriors and the Grizzlies . They are 2-4 on the road in the playoffs. By Matt Moore. Colin Ward-Henninger 1 min read. That's definitely on the table after the Heat missed 26 3-pointers and took just 44% of their shots in the paint. The Bulls are expected to be big spenders in the free-agency market, particularly at guard. He finished with 10 points on 2-of-11 shooting, with seven. By Matt MooreZach Harper and Matt Moore discuss the struggles of the Indiana Pacers, the fun ending to Mavs-Warriors, and the league's attempt at transparency. In "clutch time" (defined as a five-point game inside five minutes), Westbrook leads the league in points per 100 possessions (74. My 2020 NBA All-Star Game Picks. Matt Moore October 19, 2021 10:19 AM >>. 5, so where's the betting value? Matt Moore explains why he likes the under to hit again, as well as two other angles for the matchup. Teams are more likely to deal from positions of opportunity than desperation. Opposing hitters batted . Even if Toronto didn’t wish to include him in a deal, OG Anunoby or. Tayshaun Prince: Pistons could've won four NBA titles if they drafted Melo Former Detroit forward laments decision to draft the ultimate bust, Darko Milicic. Pictured: Russell Westbrook. Pistons, Nuggets vs. The Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets will clash in Round 2 of the NBA Playoffs and Matt Moore thinks whoever wins is a solid bet to win the title. Action Network NBA expert Matt Moore expects the game to be fast paced, and has corresponding bets based on this. Mar 20, 2017 at 10:45 am ET • 1 min read Let’s talk about ocean currents. Pictured: Jamal Murray (27) of the Denver. ET). According to Roland Lazenby's prolific book on Jordan, "The Life," "[NBA commissioner David] Stern told reporters that the league's latest investigation of Jordan was now closed, emphasizing that he was certain Jordan had never bet on NBA games and was not suffering from gambling addiction. See NBA season win total picks for all 30 teams from The Action Network's Matt Moore headed into the 2018-19 season. See where your NBA team ranks in Matt Moore's most recent rankings and how to bet on each of the 30 teams based on their current performance. Jun 18, 2023 at 10:03 AM PDT 2 min read. (If it's not No. the Hornets and he's not listed on the injury report. The Warriors actually have a better Defensive Rating with him on the bench than on the floor, but on the floor they're still allowing an insane 100. Below he'll give both picks and dive into the angles leading to the value. NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Matt Moore’s Bets for Nets vs. Phi -110 Bos -110. com NBA Predictions Win total, award, and playoff preseason predictions from the Eye on Basketball crew of Zach Harper, Royce Young, and Matt Moore with Ken Berger. 29 ERA across 73 innings. We’re a little more than a month away from the end of the regular season. RADIO. He has a variety of bets, including a total, moneyline and player prop. Below, Matt Moore dives deep into the unit, what makes it elite and how it's different from years past. 9 strategy. By Matt Moore. That was a weird year. Nuggets. Steph Curry is the favorite to win the 2019 NBA Finals MVP award entering Game 3. Sports. Talks fell through on both sides, sources said, and more discussions are not expected after the Celtics rejected an unknown counteroffer. Since 1985 when preseason odds are available dating back to, if you bet $100 on the Lakers' title odds in preseason, you would be currently down just $625 over the span of 35 years. US Legal Betting. As the NBA trade deadline approached this February, Brunson was involved in trade talks in January. There's no one on planet Earth like Giannis Antetokounmpo, of course, but Budenholzer's never even had a reasonable facsimile. 1097 Posts. The Golden State Warriors are searching. The Milwaukee Bucks stunned NBA circles Thursday night, selecting 7-foot-1 South-Sudanese-born Australian forward Thon Maker with the No. Opening weekend of the 2019 NBA playoffs is in the books. Sep 6, 2017 at 12:25 pm ET • 6 min read The Memphis Grizzlies consider All-Star center Marc Gasol "untouchable" and have refused to enter his name in any trade conversations, two. Action Senior NBA Writer Matt Moore breaks down the series matchup between the Warriors and Celtics, including his betting pick. Draymond Green is mortal. Matt Moore Updated: Feb 06, 2023, 04:58 PM EST Download App With five days until the NBA trade teadline and in the wake of Sunday's blockbuster on the Kyrie. These picks are all free to view if. 18. Picks. Picks. On this page, we track not only the percentage of. For the lower level guys, click here. The opening night marquee double. See where your NBA team ranks in Matt Moore's most recent rankings and how to bet on each of the 30 teams based on their current performance. NBA DFS picks, lineups, advice, Nov. OKLAHOMA CITY — Paul George isn't here for the hype. The Miami Heat have their backs against the wall in Game 4 of the NBA Finals against the Denver Nuggets. Picks. There is more optimism that VanVleet will be traded, given his relative decline this season, his differential in timeline from Scottie Barnes, and his desire for a new deal with a $22 million player option for next. Matt Moore breaks down the Trail Blazers' offensive struggles (and Lakers' defensive prowess) in his Monday NBA angles. The record said the Bucks were the best team in the NBA; the former champs from two seasons ago. Matt has been covering the NBA since 2008, working for AOL FanHouse, NBC Sports, and CBS Sports before joining The Action Network at its inception. Celtics (May 29) Maddie Meyer/Getty Images. Odds. Now the over/under for Tuesday night's Game 2 has been set at 218. Nuggets. Williams' contract, which is non-guaranteed at $8 million in 2020-21/ Wilson Chandler's expiring contract. This article, usually part of our EDGE membership, is completely FREE to read today — we hope you enjoy it! Be sure to check out our free app, where you can get real-time odds and expert betting analysis while on the go. com and the top team in. Credit: Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images. Brooklyn was thought to be a prime landing spot until the Nets nabbed Blake Griffin. Matt Moore. . Follow. Follow. It’s worth buying to 39. us | 6-keys: media/spln/nba/reg/free. It's too early to talk MVP. com 247Sports MaxPreps SportsLine ShopAction Network Senior Writer Matt Moore gives his betting card for Wednesday's opening night games, including Nuggets vs. The ANGLE: The Bulls Offense Is a Sleeping Giant. Sportsbooks. potential moves have to clearly solve a problem. Jul 12, 2016 at 11:55 am ET • 3 min read Tim Duncan retired from the San Antonio Spurs on Monday, and left as the face of a franchise. Experience. NBA Win Total Bets: Early Over/Under Picks for Nuggets, Bucks, Spurs, More. Previewing Game 6 between the Atlanta Hawks and Boston Celtics. NBA Picks & Analysis; College Football Picks & Analysis; College. We're through Christmas and teams have discovered if they have more of an opportunity, or less, to win this season. Jul 19, 2013 at 9:14 am ET • 1 min read It took Paul Pierce convincing Kevin Garnett to clear the way for big trade to Nets. Action Network Senior NBA Writer Matt Moore previews the Nuggets vs Suns series, including his betting picks for the Round 2 matchup. Matt Moore. 5 alternate points (over in six of seven), Murray over 1. There’s talk that the NBA season is too long, that 82 games is too many, and that talk’s probably on point when it comes to preventing rest and injuries, and improving the product overall. Matt Moore October 8, 2021 5:37 AM >> Download. E. Get the latest news and information on your favorite prospects on CBSSports. notably, and as previously reported by The Athletic, offered two first-round picks for Gordon recently but were unable to reach a deal due to Gordon's. Matt Moore's NBA Draft Betting Card: The Scoot Henderson Paradox. Dal +550 LAC -800. Moore: Milwaukee’s Big Bet on Giannis Antetokounmpo Pays Off With. Sports. Jayson Tatum. Banchero was 18-1 or longer to go No. Matt Moore October 17, 2022 12:21 PM According to Matt Moore of Action… The Golden State Warriors and Atlanta Hawks reportedly have their eyes on the same big man heading into the 2023 NBA draft. It's a razor-thin race between James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo for 2018-19 NBA MVP, but Matt Moore has settled on a winner. Scalabrine is a former NBA player, and a current analyst for both CSN New England and Yahoo Sports. He really cares about the defensive end and executes. More. NBA. Most Spectacular Player. In particular, starting Sunday, a series of bets came in on Banchero to go No. The Mavericks' offense was the best in the NBA last season, with Tim Hardaway Jr. Matt Moore Updated: Jun 20, 2023, 02:56 PM EDT Download App Oooh! Bradley Beal! Ahhh! Chris Paul! Ohhh! Kyrie Irving! Zoinks! Damian Lillard! Yikesabees!. Matt Moore re-ranks all the current NBA Playoffs first-round series prices, headlined by a surprising team still getting plus odds. Yahoo Sports reports that Bobcats coach Paul Silas shoves power forward Tyrus Thomas after the Bobcats loss Sunday and that the two had to be separated by teammates and staff. He also makes his over/under pick on Vegas win totals. 8% flat. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). CBSSports. By Matt Moore. Damian Lillard, Bradley Beal, Zion Williamson, Chris Paul, Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and John Collins (again!) are the names that are already bouncing around league circles. A. Matt Moore gives his detailed thoughts, plus his top pick, for Tuesday's NBA game between the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz. There is a threshold that an MVP has to meet, and after that. Matt Moore April 29, 2023 1:35 PM 2013-2014 CBSSports. Matt Moore. 0 seconds remaining in overtime was on. Al Horford +10000 (BetMGM, 0. It's felt like Giannis Antetokounmpo has been largely silent in this first-round series for Milwaukee. Action Network NBA senior writer Matt Moore dives deep into the 2021-22 MVP race and details how he finds betting value on the coveted award. MLB Props | WNBA Picks | Green Dot Daily!. Warriors, including by bets for Game 5. 8% of the time prior to 2016-17, and since, it’s been 65. the Heat. He takes a look at their win profile and more to back up why it's time to buy in on Victor Oladipo and Co. Is Miami ever, and I mean ever, going to give up a pick that could wind up in the top 10? Will they ever be that bad?" one personnel analyst asked. Grizzlies Read now. Justin Thomas, now a major-championship-winning golfer, has his own Jordan story of gambling on the course — but his is with MJ, rather than against. Matt Moore October 19, 2021 5:19 PMMatt Moore pinpoints five NBA win totals he feels very confident about entering the 2020-21 season, including the Dallas Mavericks. NBA. It has been a disaster. Let’s dive into the angles and takeaways for Lakers vs. the Heat. Role. Oklahoma City Thunder (+176) over. Matt has been covering the NBA since 2008, working for AOL FanHouse, NBC Sports, and CBS Sports before joining The Action Network at its inception. Oct 27, 2023 UTC. Sports. Here are two betting angles for Thursday’s slate based on matchups and trends. Senior NBA Writer. We have two extra problems this year. See NBA season win total picks for all 30 teams from The Action Network's Matt Moore heading into the 2019-20 season. It means the player whose performance, while on the court, most directly contributed to winning. Matt Moore analyzes the matchup, including a play on both the spread and total. Every team in the NBA is playing basketball tonight and that means Matt Moore is firing up his betting card. The Warriors' NBA title odds are now -150, but with this roster, they are a near lock to repeat. The Clippers are a better matchup for him; they use small-ball players like Morris and JaMychal Green at power forward. US Betting. FA LA LA. Most Impactful Player. He's got four picks across today's 15 games, including bets on Rockets vs Magic and Knicks vs Timberwolves. and Portland tip off at 9 p. In Atlanta, the traditional point guard 1-5 pick-and-roll set the table more often than not. As always, keep in mind that leaks are often provided for a reason and this is the time of smokescreens, agent promotion, and counter-intel. NBA Matt. Podcasts. Matt Moore. Previewing Game 3 between the Atlanta Hawks and Boston Celtics. Westbrook's shooting woes are historically bad. Credit: Mark J. 5 and -110. It's gut check time for a dynasty that has reigned supreme for nearly 10 years. Block on one end, pick-and-roll pass for a bucket on the other, steal on the other. NBA. 25): Why the Suns-Nuggets Spread Is Too High. Pictured: Kevin Durant #7 of the Brooklyn Nets. Download App. NBA In-Season Tournament picks include Warriors, Bucks. the Bucks, and 9. They had just lost, at home, to the soon-to-be 24-win Atlanta Hawks. Apr 7, 2017 at 4:13 pm ET • 10 min read Find me the flaw in Kawhi Leonard‘s game. Game 1 was suspicious for a lot of reasons:Read Matt Moore's (@HPBasketball) guide to betting the NBA 3-Point Contest, highlighting which players are best suited for the current format. Matt Moore dives deep into this series to find the best betting edges, hitting on series prices, player props, quarter spreads and much more. The Clippers are a better matchup for him; they use small-ball players like Morris. Sports. NBA Best Bets | MLB Picks | NBA Playoff Trends | Green Dot Daily!. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Teams. He is owed approximately $525,000 the rest of the season, which is a drop in the bucket for an MLB franchise, but is. But as the Mavs continued to progress, and Brunson continued having a career season, Dallas shifted. Credit: Adam Hagy/NBAE via Getty Images. Action Network Senior Writer Matt Moore gives out his betting card for Wednesday's slate of NBA games, including Heat vs. NBA. In the final 41 games, that number drops to 61. By Matt Moore. 2 in Schedule-Adjusted Defensive Rating, according to Dunks and Threes) and pick-and-roll offense (fourth in points per possession). NBA analyst Matt Moore takes a look at how the Milwaukee Bucks and Giannis Antetokounmpo went all in on each other, which culminated with an NBA title. Wizards. Fantasy Hockey. But he’s averaged a double-double in back-to-back series, and this matchup is way better for him. Philadelphia 76ers: This club could have been a decent team this past season, but lost Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons to injuries. Apr 01, 2022, 01:12 PM EDT. Sports. Matt Moore breaks the whole thing down below. Pick your spots carefully, and always wait to make sure Kawhi is playing. The Warriors are the worst defending champion on the road in NBA history. 2 pick in the 2020 NBA Draft recently, league sources told The Action Network Wednesday. Matt Moore; Chris Raybon; Raheem Palmer; Bryan Mears; Brandon Anderson; Anthony Dabbundo; Chad Millman; You can also follow picks of your friends and find top bettors over the last month. Blazers will kick off Monday, April 29 at 10:30 p. Nov 15, 2017 at 10:44 am ET • 5 min read Marcus Smart is the worst shooter in the NBA, at least right now. By Matt Moore Feb 6, 2017 at 11:25 am ET • 1 min read You have to keep perspective at this point in the NBA season. 1112 Posts. Mar 3, 2017 at 8:34 pm ET • 3 min read The NBA is a scorerâ s league, now more than ever. Read Matt Moore's betting analysis of the 2020 NBA Draft, inlcuding why he likes Florida State's Patrick Williams and is avoiding LaMelo Ball. com. Teams that were top-10 in both offensive and defensive ranking went 17-12 (59%) the following season to the under. NBA. There will be trades and injuries, not to mention every November a team gets everyone excited and then fails the mirror test. Matt Moore evaluates the Rockets-Warriors series as it stands before Game 4, discussing Steph Curry's slump, Kevin Durant's isolation love and the Rockets defense. The NBA lifer coach talks development, handling losses with a young team, and his faith in LeBron James. Senior NBA Writer. 16 strategy. The NBA is back. There's a bizarre symmetry in the fact that the NBA season has been, for the most part, exceptionally unlucky for all involved. " We've seen NBA superstars go from heroes to villains, from MVP candidates. Picks. Feb 13, 2017 at 11:34 am ET • 1 min read The NBA trade deadline is in just 10 days, and many of the decisions teams will make about whether to uproot their rosters or not will be. 7 assists and 52% shooting in just 27 minutes per game. Hi, I'm Matt Moore, NBA writer for CBSSports. Are the New York Knicks a Value Bet to Win 2024 NBA Finals? NBA Title Odds. 2 pick in the 2020 NBA Draft recently, league sources told The. Here's a brief history of this year and Jalen Brunson’s free agency question. Teams after losing Games 1 and 2 in Game 3: 70-48 straight up (59%) and 67-49-2 (58%) against the spread since 2003. The Rockets want good young talent and picks for everyone they're entertaining offers for, which seems an unlikely return for a 35-year-old 6-foot-6 small-ball center. 5 total. The NBA has wanted to get back into Seattle since it left in 2007. NBA In-Season Tournament picks: Go with Magic, Warriors. The Clippers are 4-1 with Leonard playing as. Updated: Sep 23, 2021, 09:02 PM EDT. And a pick this year, next year and all their picks going. Karl-Anthony Towns and D'Angelo Russell are talented, no doubt. Kuzma has evolved into a 20-points-per-game scorer on moderate efficiency. The Golden State Warriors are searching. Pictured: Russell Westbrook Matt Moore Updated: Apr 01, 2022, 12:49 PM EDT Download App It's December 15th, and that. NBA Odds, Expert Picks & Predictions: Matt Moore’s Bets for Warriors vs. By Matt Moore. 1 pick in league history. Mar 31, 2022, 12:36 PM EDT. 5 tend to go under even more often. Milwaukee due to his back continuing to give him issues. Fantasy Football. 76ers, Pelicans vs. Lakers. The Nuggets are trying to finish off the sweep and reach the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history. comThey have the 12th-most wins in NBA history despite the franchise beginning in 1968. Action Network NBA senior writer Matt Moore dives deep into the 2021-22 MVP race and details how he finds betting value on the coveted award.